On October 23, the "Recommendations of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" (hereinafter referred to as the "Recommendations") was officially released. It clearly states that China will "accelerate the comprehensive green transition of economic and social development and build a Beautiful China", emphasizing that "green development is a distinctive feature of Chinese-style modernization". The document underscores the need to firmly establish and practice the concept that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets", take carbon peaking and carbon neutrality as the driving force, and synergistically promote carbon reduction, pollution control, ecological expansion, and high-quality growth to consolidate the ecological security barrier and enhance momentum for green development.
Centering on advancing in-depth pollution prevention and control, optimizing ecosystems, accelerating the construction of a new energy system, steadily promoting carbon peaking, and fostering green production and lifestyle, the Recommendations outlines specific directions. Combining policies and market hotspots over the past two years, Environmental Protection Online identifies four key tracks for environmental protection practitioners to explore opportunities in the next five years.
I.Resource Recycling
The Recommendations specifies the need to "improve the total resource management and comprehensive conservation system, enhance waste classification and resource utilization, and promote the development of a circular economy". By converting waste into resources, the circular economy industry fundamentally reduces reliance on primary resources and environmental pollution, while spurring emerging sectors such as recycling, remanufacturing, and green design.
In 2024, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Waste Recycling System", requiring the initial establishment of a comprehensive waste recycling system covering all fields and links by 2025 with positive progress in recycling major wastes. By 2030, a fully covered, efficient, and standardized waste recycling system should be completed, with the resource value of various wastes fully explored, the proportion of recycled materials in raw material supply further increased, and the scale and quality of the resource recycling industry significantly improved, placing China among the world leaders in waste recycling.
To achieve these goals, China Resource Recycling Group Co., Ltd. (abbreviated as "China Resource Recycling") was established in Tianjin on October 18, 2024, tasked with building a national, functional platform for resource recovery and reuse. Subsequently, local resource recycling groups have been established intensively to construct regional full-chain resource recycling systems, accelerating the formation of a state-owned enterprise team in resource recycling. According to the prediction of the Chairman of the China Circular Economy Association, China Resource Recycling was founded with a scale of 150 billion yuan and is expected to grow to at least 1 trillion yuan in the future. "By 2030, the scale of China's resource recycling industry will approach 10 trillion yuan, leaving enormous room for growth in theory."
II.Emerging Pollutant Control
Beyond further advancing the campaigns to defend blue skies, clear waters, and clean soil, the Recommendations specifically calls for "strengthening environmental risk prevention and control and advancing in-depth governance of emerging pollutants". The shift from "paying attention to" in the 14th Five-Year Plan to "advancing in-depth" reflects a significant elevation of national attention to emerging pollutant control.
Emerging pollutants originate from industrial production, daily life, and agricultural activities, mainly including four categories: persistent organic pollutants, endocrine-disrupting chemicals, antibiotics, and microplastics. Compared with conventional pollutants, they have not received sufficient attention. Since 2022, emerging pollutant control has been included in China's Government Work Report for three consecutive years. In May 2022, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Action Plan for Emerging Pollutant Control", providing comprehensive and systematic arrangements for related work. The "Recommendations of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council on Comprehensively Promoting the Construction of a Beautiful China" stipulates that environmental risks from emerging pollutants should be effectively controlled by 2035.
By 2025, with the initial establishment of an environmental survey and monitoring system, emerging pollutant control in key regions, industries, and typical industrial parks will be supported by data. Analysis from Zhonghuan Zhiyun indicates that with rising policy requirements and enhanced public environmental awareness, market demand for emerging pollutant control will maintain steady growth, offering broad development space for the industry. Preliminary estimates suggest that by 2025, the market size of China's emerging pollutant control industry is expected to reach 100 billion yuan, becoming an important component of the environmental protection industry.
III River and Lake Governance
The Recommendations emphasizes the need to "strengthen the systematic governance and ecological protection of major rivers, lakes, and reservoirs".
Notably, the second and third batches of the third round of central ecological and environmental inspections focused on the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins respectively, conducting comprehensive inspections. The Executive Deputy Director of the Central Ecological and Environmental Inspection Office also stated that "river basin inspections for the Yangtze River and Yellow River will be incorporated into provincial inspections". By addressing overall basin issues and prominent problems in various provinces and cities, central inspections will urge local governments to rectify issues along riverbanks.
In 2025, the issuance of the "Opinions of the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council on Comprehensively Promoting River Protection and Governance" officially launched "integrated river basin governance". The document emphasizes taking river basins as the overall spatial unit, coordinating the "four-water governance" (flood disaster management, water resource management, water ecological protection, and water environment improvement), breaking administrative divisions, and reshaping the logic of river governance. This signifies a shift from fragmented segmental governance to integrated whole-basin coordinated governance, driving unified rectification and quality improvement of related industries within river basins.
Reflected in the project market, investment in 12 key integrated river basin governance projects reached 25 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 alone, covering North China, East China, Central China, Southwest China, Northwest China, and other regions, involving major rivers, their key tributaries, and lakes. This reflects strong local government investment in river basin governance in the first half of 2025. The China Water Conservancy Enterprise Association believes that the aforementioned document is a landmark strategic announcement, as it not only clarifies "what to govern" but also outlines "how to govern".
IV Carbon Emission Reduction
The Recommendations dedicates a separate section to "steadily promoting and achieving carbon peaking", emphasizing the need to further implement energy conservation and carbon reduction transformations, expand the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading market, establish and improve a green and low-carbon standard system, and promote the improvement, connection, and mutual recognition of international rules and standards.
In 2025, national policies have strongly tilted towards carbon market development.
In March, the "Opinions on Promoting the Voluntary Disclosure of Enterprise Greenhouse Gas Information" was issued, specifying that a policy system and technical standards for voluntary greenhouse gas information disclosure by enterprises should be basically established by 2027. By 2030, a voluntary disclosure model aligned with international standards, mutually recognized, and supporting high-quality enterprise development should be formed.
In August, the "Opinions of the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening the Construction of the National Carbon Market" was released, requiring the national carbon emissions trading market to basically cover major emitting industries in the industrial sector by 2027. By 2030, a national carbon emissions trading market based on total quota control and combining free and paid allocation should be basically established, forming a carbon pricing mechanism with significant emission reduction effects, sound rules, and reasonable price levels.
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in October, the Director of the Department of Climate Change Response stated that the iron and steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries will complete their first compliance cycle within this year. Meanwhile, on the basis of six existing methodologies including afforestation carbon sinks, 13 new methodologies such as grid-connected power generation and combined heat and power generation from pure agricultural and forestry biomass are undergoing public consultation, marking a critical period of rapid expansion for both carbon trading markets.
Summary
The 15th Five-Year Plan period is approaching. These five years will not only be the first period for China to fully transition to the dual control system of total carbon emissions and intensity but also a crucial sprint period for achieving the carbon peaking goal. With the basic completion of a Beautiful China targeted by 2035 and a new nationally determined contribution target for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality also set for 2035, the environmental protection industry must closely follow policy directions, adjust development strategies in a timely manner, and respond to the evolving market environment.